Forget Black Friday super sales.

Early November Saturday holiday sales can fill a shopping basket just as well.

Maneuvering through the Markland Avenue Wal-Mart toy aisle, Toni Peters and Juanita Winston recently sought and found toys on their children’s list to give to the jolly ol’ elf.

Forget waiting in line at 4 a.m. for sales, the two women got an early start to their Christmas shopping.

They are not alone.

Typically, the Friday after Thanksgiving is the unofficial start of the Christmas-shopping season. The Markland Mall will open at 5 a.m., while Elder-Beerman and many other area stores are scheduled to open at 4 a.m.

All are offering huge holiday sales.

However, due to high-unemployment rates — Kokomo’s is 12 percent — and an ebbing economy, many retailers began the shopping season just days after

Halloween.

Black Friday has met a Black Month.

WHAT IS BLACK FRIDAY?

Although not an official holiday, Black Friday can be traced to Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade, which began in 1924. The term has also been attributed to a 1869 financial crisis. In the mid-’60s, Philadelphia police told newspapers the day after Thanksgiving was “Black Friday” due to heavy traffic jams caused by shoppers and people attending the Army-Navy football game.

However, with many retailers expecting to make at least 50 percent of their annual profits and sales during the four-week period leading to Christmas, Black Friday is now all about making and spending money.

But this year, there may not be that much money being made or spent.

From $10 toys to a $598 50-inch plasma TV, there are sales, but the crowds retailers are expecting on Black Friday may not be rushing through their front doors.

WHAT IS HAPPENING

ON BLACK FRIDAY?

Attempting to capitalize on the expected 190 million people shopping and spending $300 to $400 on Friday, many retailers used their Web sites earlier this month to announce sales prior to Black Friday.

“We stay on the Web,” said Winston. “[Peters lets] me know about a sale and we hit the streets. There’s no reason to wait until the last minute to do your shopping or stand in line if you can get it now.”

Yet, even with early holiday sales — most advertised online — the National Retail Federation is predicting a 1 percent decline in retail shopping. Furthermore, the NRF expects consumers to spend an average of $682.74 on gifts this season.

That figure is also a decline as consumers spent $705.01 last year.

Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University, said last year’s Black Friday sales were 7 percent higher than 2007. That was due, he said, to retailers offering “deep discounts in the wake of the financial crisis. The unemployment rate will reduce the available of income for holiday gifts this year.”

Unlike Winston and Peters finding early toy discounts, Hicks expects shoppers to see fewer discounts on toys Black Friday and “strong seasonal discounts on clothing, consumer electronics and more common gift items for adults.”

“One really bright area this season will be spending on food and drink, though that won’t be at the top of mind for most consumers on the day after Thanksgiving.”

With a bad economy last year, Theresa D. Williams said retailers slashed prices as much as 70 percent to lure consumers into their stores and as a way for them to reduce inventory.

The director of the Center for Education and Research in Retailing at Indiana University’s Kelly School of Business said a year later, the economy is still unsettled and consumers should not expect huge discounts or large inventories this Friday or during the holiday-shopping season.

“We’re 13 months away from that really awful season,” said Williams, who worked in retailing as a department-store buyer before becoming an academic. “Most of the big shocks for retailers and consumers are over. The customer is dealing with unemployment rates and a tight credit market and they won’t see those kind of discounts this holiday. Most stores are carrying less of whatever it is they carry. That’s their way of managing for a down economy.

“Anytime customers are concerned, afraid of unemployment or are more negative, you’ll see trends toward traditions or comforts. This holiday season has been tagged the ‘old-fashioned holiday.’ Nostalgia is always a way to feel secure when consumers don’t feel safe.”

Williams added shopping crowds may also be smaller due to an early flu season and H1N1 virus. Therefore, retailers should expect smaller crowds with less money to spend because people lost time at work, which can affect take-home pay.

“It’s certainly going to have an impact on discretionary spending if you are paid hourly,” said Williams, adding her center projects November-December retail sales to total $437 billion.

WHERE ARE THE BARGAINS?

Regardless of the economy or unemployment rates, whether it’s online shopping or being the first-in-line to buy that heavily-sought-out Christmas gift, consumer psychologist Kit Yarrow said people are going to shop on Black Friday.

The Golden Gate University chair of psychology said there are bargains available and with consumers being budget-conscious, getting up early Friday and fighting crowds to find bargains is “traditional.”

“People expect it. People expect great sales on Black Friday,” said Yarrow, who has been studying consumers’ buying habits for 15 years, but adds getting up at 4 a.m. to go shopping is too early for her.

“It’s good for the stores to [have Black Friday sales]. It would lose its potency if it was done too often or if it was held on Aug. 14. There would be no reason for it and consumers wouldn’t be in the mood for it. But now they expect it.”

As a result, Yarrow is optimistic about the outlook for the upcoming holiday-shopping season.

“While many consumer surveys predict another drop in spending, I believe shoppers will spend responsibly and hunt for bargains, spending levels will be higher than last year - and higher than most surveys are predicting,” said Yarrow.

“A simple discount won’t cut it. Retailers will offer mini-sales, special selections at pop-up stores, parties, personalization options and bonus experiences.

“With the stock market on the rebound, the wealthy are feeling more adventurous. Though not as enamored with ‘luxury’ as before, they’re nevertheless going to feel a touch of frenzy when special, high-end items start selling out from retailers with minimal stock on hand this year.”

Regardless of what a person buys on Black Friday, Todd Lipscomb wants it to be American-made gifts.

Lipscomb is the author of “Achieving Prosperity,” and the founder of the 3-year-old MadeinUSAForever.com, a Web site dedicated to American-made products.

Especially with Americans suffering from high-unemployment rates, Lipscomb said this Christmas would be a perfect time to buy American.

But, he adds, that fact is lost on major retailing chains that are seeking a profit margin.

“The major chains make it appealing to buy electronics, but they don’t want to tell you where the item was made. If it was made in America, that means there would still be people with jobs and we would have a lower unemployment rate,” said Lipscomb, who has worked in Asia as a technology executive.

“I am not trying to tell people what to buy, but there are a lot of good reasons to buy American this Christmas. Especially this holiday, a purchase that supports American-made products is more important than ever.”

• K.O. Jackson is the Kokomo Tribune’s business writer. He can be reached at (765) 854-6739 or via e-mail kirven.jackson@kokomotribune.com