Kokomo — Did the recession keep Hoosiers from leaving home? New population estimates indicate that may be so, but it’s too soon to tell.
Population estimates just released by the U.S. Census Bureau indicate many of Indiana’s larger cities held on to more of their residents last year than in prior years over the last decade.
There were losses to be sure, but overall, Indiana fared better than most of its neighbors last year, and saw an estimated 5.6 percent population growth since 2000, according to the demographic experts who crunch census numbers.
“Indiana outperformed its industrial neighbors,” said Matt Kinghorn, an economist with the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business. “Indiana is in a better position in terms of economics and population growth than Ohio, Michigan and Illinois.”
Kinghorn said analysis of the population estimates over the last year reflect the slowdown of out-migration. He cites a slump in the housing market and employment insecurity as resulting in fewer people moving from central cities to suburban areas.
“The tough employment climate means that fewer people are relocating for new jobs,” Kinghorn said.
The latest population estimates were released Tuesday to the center, the state’s official representative to the U.S. Census Bureau. Final figures will be released by the Census Bureau next June.
Among the center’s key findings:
• Most Hoosiers live in cities or towns. Of Indiana’s 6.4 million residents, almost 65 percent live in places that were legally incorporated as of Jan. 1, 2009.
• Unincorporated areas – located outside of official city and town boundaries – led the state’s population increase early this decade, but that’s reversed. Incorporated cities and towns account for 70 percent of all growth between 2006 and 2009.
• Suburban areas around Indianapolis and Lake County lead the state’s population growth over the decade, but that growth was tempered by the recession. Four of the fastest growing suburban communities (Fishers, Noblesville, Greenwood and Crown Point) had population increases in 2009 that were below their average since 2000.
• Out of the top 20 largest cities in Indiana, those with the greatest rate of population loss since 2000 include Hammond (-7.8 percent), Gary (-6.9 percent), Muncie (-4.4 percent), Anderson (-4.2 percent) and Evansville (-4.2 percent).
• Indianapolis is the 14th largest city in the U.S., ranking just behind Jacksonville, Fla., and ahead of Austin, Texas.
All these numbers could change. The 2010 Census won’t wind down until the end of the summer. While most Indiana residents have mailed back in their 2010 Census forms, Census workers are still out visiting households that didn’t respond.
Still, Kinghorn thinks the population estimates released this week are good indicators of what’s to come. The estimates are based on the 2000 Census, with yearly updates based on current city and town boundaries and other information, including birth and death records supplied to the Census Bureau by county and state health departments.
• Maureen Hayden is Statehouse bureau chief for CNHI’s Indiana newspapers. She can be reached at maureen.hayden@indianamediagroup.com.
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